The Word for the Day

It’s not a word we reach for often—especially in coffee—but it fits the current tone of the market. Our word for the day is: 

Irresolute (adjective):
Lacking firmness, determination, or decisiveness; hesitant or uncertain.

The market appears to be slipping into a typical Easter Week holiday lull a few days early. There’s little new to report, but we continue to flag that the Robusta long-term trend strength indicator (ADX) is at an extreme low. Historically, these levels have preceded periods of heightened volatility, as illustrated in the 5-year daily chart below.

Options

At-the-money implied volatility vs. N26 held steady, up ~0.5% on the day to ~38.50%.
Volumes were broadly average, with 13,300 contracts traded, broken down as:

• 12,505 vanilla options
• 775 calendar spreads
• 20 weekly options

Notable Flow

• 500x Jul26 320 / May26 300 diagonal call spread (buy May Δ72 @ 314.80 / sell Jul Δ44 @ 307.80)
• 500x Jul26/May26 320 call calendar (buy May Δ46 @ 316.50 / sell Jul Δ46 @ 309.75)
• 453x May26 320/330 call spread vs. short Jul26 265 puts
• 300x Jun26 325 / May26 315 diagonal call spread
• 250x 1x2 risk structure (long May26 330 calls vs. short 2x May26 280 puts, Δ46 @ 316.60)
• 250x Dec26 200 puts @ 283.25 (Δ8)
• 200x Dec26 190 puts @ 283.25 (Δ6)
• 200x May26 315/290 put spread @ 317.00 (Δ32)
• 200x May26 365/280 fence @ 318.50 (Δ8)
• 200x May26 285/270 put spread

CSO:

• 775x Jul26 7.50 put (1-Month CSO)